INTERNATIONAL TOURISM – CONDITION AND PROSPECTS
Ospanov G.M.
Каraganda State University n.a. Е.А. Buketov, Каraganda, e-mail: g88888g@mail.ru
This article discusses the history of development and the current state of international tourism originating, according to the author, since the expeditions of T. Cook in 40-ies of the XIX century. The author of the article highlights the growing role of domestic and international tourism in the economies of the various regions of the globe, tracks the positive and negative factors influencing the development of international tourism.
Today’s Kazakhstan, possessing unique natural resources and the original culture of the nomadic people has a huge untapped potential for tourism development in the international market.
The beginning of modern international tourism has been put in 40th years of XIX century when English businessman T. Cook has organized in the country some excursions and travel, and then to 1885 and the first foreign trip to Paris on the World’s fair. A year the constant organized travel of Englishmen to Europe, and to 1868 – in the USA later begins. In 1882 Cook’s organization arranges the first round-the-world travel. New business has started to bring in to the owners quite good incomes, to it began to show interest and other businessmen. Gradually in the different countries the travel agencies which are engaged in the organization of excursions and travel to all parts of the world are formed. Achievements in the field of transport in the beginning of XX century were reflected and in tourism development. For travel and excursions have started to use steamships, the railways, and already then and motor transport. Speed, range, comfort of movement constantly grew. At the early stage foreign travel were destiny of representatives of aristocracy and bourgeoisie as these social groups had sufficient for these purpose incomes. [2; 12]
The international tourist business becomes today more and more difficult as in it interests of the various state and commercial enterprises and services are crossed. By data statisticians of the international tourism for 1995 relative density of incomes of tourism in a total sum of receipts from 20 exports of goods and services made: in Spain of 60 %, Austria – 40, Switzerland – 18, Italy – 11 % etc. Leading position of Europe in the international tourism is defined not only quantity of foreign visitors and the sum of currency incomes, but also capacity of material base of foreign tourism which in a certain measure surpasses possibilities of the tourist industry of other areas of the world, in particular, means of passenger transport, hotel placing, excursion and entertainment objects. The main role in the international tourism in Europe belongs to a tourist exchange between the European people. On a share of the European states it is necessary about 90 % of all foreign tourism in Europe. Foreign tourism is now one of the most dynamical branches of economy of France, Germany and Spain. [7; 198]
Boosted by improved economic conditions worldwide, international tourism has recovered faster than expected from the impacts of the global financial crisis and economic recession of late 2008 and 2009. International tourist arrivals were up by 6,7 % compared to 2009, with positive growth reported in all world regions. Worldwide, the number of international tourist arrivals reached 935 million, up 58 million from 2009 and 22 million more than the pre-crisis peak level of 2008 (913 million).
While all regions posted growth in international tourist arrivals, emerging economies remain the main drivers of this recovery. This multi-speed recovery, lower in advanced economies (+ 5 %), faster in emerging ones (+ 8 %), is a reflection of the broader global economic situation and is set to dominate 2011 and the foreseeable future. [11; 4]
In my opinion, the recovery in international tourism is good news, especially for those developing countries that rely on the sector for much-needed revenue and jobs. The challenge now will be to consolidate this growth over the coming years amid a still uncertain global economic environment.
Asia (+ 13 %) was the first region to recover and the strongest growing region in 2010. International tourist arrivals into Asia reached a new record at 204 million last year, up from 181 million in 2009. Africa (+ 6 % to 49 million), the only region to show positive figures in 2009, maintained growth during 2010, benefiting from increasing economic dynamism and the hosting of events such as the FIFA World Cup in South Africa. Results returned to double digits in the Middle East (+ 14 % to 60 million) where almost all destinations grew by 10 % or more. [10; 55]
In Europe (+ 3 % to 471 million) recovery was slower than in other regions due to the air traffic disruption caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano and the economic uncertainty affecting the euro zone. However, the sector gained momentum from the second half of the year and some individual countries performed well above the regional average, but this was not sufficient to bring overall results above the losses of 2009. [10; 56]
The Americas (+ 8 % to 151 million) rebounded from the decline in 2009 brought on by the economic hardship suffered in North America and the impact of the influenza A(H1N1) outbreak. The return to growth in the US economy has helped improve the region’s results as a whole, as did the increasing regional integration in Central and South America and the vitality of Latin American economies. Growth was strongest in South America (+ 10 %).
Subregional results clearly reflect this multi-speed recovery. A few subregions such as North and Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia were not impacted by the global crisis and reported continuous growth throughout 2009 and 2010. Among the subregions affected by the crisis in 2009, North-East and South Asia, North and South America, and Western Europe saw growth in arrivals in 2010 fully compensate for previous losses and exceeding pre-crisis peak levels. The Caribbean and Central America are just back at 2008 levels, while in Central and Eastern Europe, and Southern and Mediterranean Europe growth was still insufficient to make up for the lost tourist flows of 2009. In contrast, Northern Europe did not return to positive growth in 2010. [1; 12]
Growth in international tourism receipts continued to lag somewhat behind that of arrivals during 2010, as is the trend during periods of recovery. Among the top outbound tourism markets in terms of expenditure abroad, emerging economies continued to drive growth: China (+ 17 %), the Russian Federation (+ 26 %), Saudi Arabia (+ 28 %) and Brazil (+ 52 %). Of the traditional source markets, Australia (+ 9 %), Canada (+ 8 %), Japan (+ 7 %) and France (+ 4 %) rebounded, while more modest growth at 2 % came from the USA, Germany and Italy. On the opposite side of the spectrum, expenditure abroad from the UK was still down by 4 % in 2010.
2010 in review. International tourism demand held up well in 2010, despite persistent economic uncertainty in some major markets, the natural disasters suffered in some countries, political and social unrest in others, the serious disruption of air travel following a volcanic eruption in Iceland last April and the problematic weather conditions in parts of Europe and the USA in December.[4; 2]
In my opinion, tourism has once again proven to be a highly resilient sector. Nevertheless, we need to work closer and better towards increased integration and cooperation between all players involved in the tourism value chain to increase our competitiveness and respond more effectively to challenges such as the ones that emerged from the closure of European air space last April.
2010 also saw the rise in importance of mega-events – sport, culture and exhibitions – in terms of their extraordinary ability to attract visitors and position host countries as attractive tourism destinations. Notable examples include the Winter Olympics in Canada, the Shanghai Expo in China, the FIFA World Cup in South Africa and the Commonwealth Games in India. [5; 13]
Confirming these trends, the over 300 experts from around the globe who constitute the UNWTO Panel of Experts evaluated 2010’s overall performance very positively and much above their expectations at the beginning of the year. The Panel maintained this positive outlook for 2011.
In the first half of 2011 International tourist arrivals are estimated to have grown by 4,5 %, consolidating the 6,6 % increase registered in 2010. Between January and June of this year, the total number of arrivals reached 440 million, 19 million more than in the same period of 2010.
Growth in advanced economies (+ 4,3 %) has maintained strength and is closing the gap with emerging economies (+ 4,8 %), which have been driving international tourism growth in recent years. This trend reflects the decreases registered in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as a slight slowdown in the growth of some Asian destinations following a very strong 2010. [11; 4]
To my mind, sustained growth registered in tourism demand in such challenging times clearly makes the case for the sector and reinforces our call to consider tourism as a priority in national policies. Tourism can play a key role in terms of economic growth and development, particularly at a moment when many economies, for the most part in Europe and North America, struggle for recovery and job creation.
All world (sub) regions showed positive trends with the exception of the Middle East and North Africa. Results were better than expected in Europe (+ 6 %), boosted by the recovery of Northern Europe (+ 7 %) and Central and Eastern Europe (+ 9 %), and the temporary redistribution of travel to destinations in Southern and Mediterranean Europe (+ 7 %) due to developments in North Africa (–13 %) and the Middle East (–11 %). Sub-Saharan Africa (+ 9 %) continued to perform soundly. [10; 240].
The Americas (+ 6 %) was slightly above the world average, with remarkably strong results for South America (+ 15 %). Asia and the Pacific grew at a comparatively slower pace of 5 %, but this more than consolidates its 13 % bumper growth of 2010.
Results from recent months show that destinations such as Egypt, Tunisia or Japan are seeing declines in demand clearly reverting. “We are very encouraged to see demand picking up in such important tourism destinations and call for continued support to these countries which are today fully ready to receive travellers from all over the world.
Continued growth amid increasing uncertainty
So far, the growth of international tourism arrivals is very much in line with the initial forecast issued by UNWTO at the beginning of 2011, 4 % to 5 %, for the full year 2011, a rate slightly above the 4 % long-term average.
As international tourism receipts were more affected by the 2008-2009 crisis and recovered somewhat slower than arrivals in 2010, this year should also see their further improvement. [5; 26]
Following an encouraging first half of 2011, growth in the remainder of the year is expected to soften somewhat as recent months have brought increased uncertainty, hampering business and consumer confidence.
We must remain cautious as the global economy is showing signs of increased volatility. Many advanced economies still face risks posed by weak growth, fiscal problems and persistently high unemployment. Simultaneously, signs of overheating have become apparent in some emerging economies. Restoring sustained and balanced economic growth remains a major task.
In the light of all aforesaid, it would be desirable to notice that as well as all economy, tourist branch — rather mobile system or maybe even more mobile, than or to store other branches for tourism services can’t be made in advance for the future, and the consumer decision refuse acquisition of this blessing can to come unexpectedly under the influence of any unforeseen circumstances. And, nevertheless the country having the developed tourist infrastructure and putting development of tourism as national significant priority, aspires to develop and consistently to carry out complete to the policy in this sphere, to create sufficient safety factor, to resist to unfortunate trends and unexpected turns of a world conjuncture.
The work is submitted to the International scientific conference «Modern science technology», Spain (Tenerife), 20-27, November, 2012, came to the editorial office on 26.10.2012.