Scientific journal

European Journal of Natural History

ISSN 2073-4972

ИФ РИНЦ = 0,301

According to the US Geological Management predicted resources of oil on the Earth are estimated as more than 400 billions tons [1]. The confirmed stocks of oil in the Earth interior as estimated on 01.01.2006 come nearer to 200 billions tons  (bln.t.) (Table1).

The leaders of oil stocks are: Saudi Arabia (36041, 3 millions tons (mln.t.), Canada (24492, 1 mln.t.), Iran (18900 mln.t.), Kuwait (14329 mln.t.), Iraq (15512 mln.t.), Russia (14920 mln.t.), Venezuela (11678, 1 mln.t.).

It is necessary to note that at the present level of oil recovery its explored stocks can provide the world for 43-45 years [1,3] while the developed countries are provided with oil for about 8 years, and at the countries of OPEC - for 81 years. [4]. The proved world reserves of oil are constantly increasing. In 1983 they were estimated at 723 billions barrels, in 1993 - at 1023, 6 billions barrels and in 2003 - at 1146, 7 billions barrels. During 1960-2002 the volume of stocks of oil in the world grew more than 4 times [5].

The world oil recovery is constantly growing and has reached 3, 68 billions tons by 2006    (Table 2).

The analysis of average year rates of oil recovery growth for 75 years demonstrates its stable decrease. So, if in period from 1930 to 1960 they made 5 %, in period from 1960 to 1990 - 3 % and in period from 1990 to 2005 - on the average 1 % [7]. For each 30-years period average year rates of oil recovery growth fall by 2-3 %.

Today oil is the dominating energy source of the world energy system and its share in total energy consumption makes about 40 % and in a number of countries it reaches 60 % [8, 9].

Oil and oil products are traditionally used as motor and boiler oven fuel and also in the chemical industry.

The analysis of the dynamics of world oil consumption since the 1930-s years makes it single out some phases [8]:

1. 1945-1960 - the moderate growth. For these 15 years the average daily volume of consumption increased only by 10 million barrels.
2. 1960-1075 - rapid growth. In this period the world consumption increased 4 times.
3. 1975-1990 - stabilization of oil consumption at the level 60 million barrels per day.
4. 1990-2005 - the second phase of moderate growth. The consumption is 15-18 million barrels per day.

The logical analysis of these stages in the period from 2005 to 2020 lets us expect a phase of rapid growth of oil consumption.

The discrepancy between oil location and the regions of its consumption is one of the major factors of intensive development of the world trade.

The data on export and import in the world of oil are given in Table 4.

USA (22,5 %), Japan (9,35 %), China (5,65 %), South Korea (4,8 %), India    (4,4 %), France (4,2 %) are leaders in the oil import.

Dependence of the developed countries on oil import currently makes about 55 % and has a growing trend. According to the estimations of experts, it can increase up to 85 % by 2030.

Alongside with the capacity of the oil market the level of the world prices for oil is also a key factor. Any long-term forecast of the world prices for oil has always been characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and all of them have failed to be true.

At the nearest three decades the demand for oil and oil products will grow. Concerning to the oil supply in the world market significant changes will take place in this sector. In spite of the fact that in the developed countries-exporters of oil the extraction and export of oil will be considerably reduced, exporters assume that the world petroleum industry can provide the necessary amount of oil to satisfy the growing demand. In conditions of the increasing of world prices the world oil recovery will be still concentrated in a small number of the countries. Along with the reduction of oil extraction in the USA and the Northern Sea the role of ОPEC will increase. It is expected, that the share of this organization in the future extractions will increase from 38, 4 % in 2000 (1435 mln. t.) up to 40, 4 % in 2010 (1795 mln. t.), 48, 3 % in 2020 (2510 mln.t.) and 54, 1 % in 2030 (3245 mln.t.).

The reduction of oil recovery in the OECD countries and in developing countries such as China, India, other Asian countries, and also in the countries of Latin America, except Brazil, is predicted.

The most pronounced increase in oil recovery is predicted for the CIS countries and Russia. Here the oil recovery will increase up to 695 mln. t. in 2020.

Considering the present state of oil branch, it is necessary to pay attention to the issue of oil refining.

For the last decade capacities of world oil refineries have grown by 11 %, or by 430 mln. t. per year. The basic part of growth of capacities was in Asian-Pacific region (АТR). The number of oil refineries from 1995 to 2000 grew from 705 up to 743 basically due to the new factories in Asian-Pacific region. Since 2000 the number of oil refineries in a world petroleum-refining industry has been constantly decreasing.

Some characteristics of the world petroleum-refining industry are given in  Table 6 [10].

High technical level of equipment and sophisticated technology have allowed the USA increase the intensity of oil refining to 96 % - only 4 % constitute the output of boiler fuel and losses. This parameter is rather high in Canada - 96 %, Germany -    87 %, France - 86 %, the Great Britain - 85 %, Italy - 82, 5 %, Japan - about 82 % [11].

The different structure of technological processes in the world explains absolutely different output of target products of oil refining (Table 7) [10].

The share of the oil-and-gas companies in the production of basic petrochemical half products makes 60-90 %, intermediate products - 40-60 %, end products -        30-40 % in total production of petrochemicals.

In the structure of the leading oil-and-gas companies of the world the share of petrochemical sectors makes: in total profit - 6-12 %, in the net profit - 6-17 %.

Today the USA has reached 26 % in the volume of global petrochemical production, the West-European countries - 30 %, Japan - 10 %, developing countries ATR - 17 %, Near-East countries - 4 %, other countries - 13 %. Now, when the analysis of the current state of oil refining has been made, we shall consider the forecast of consumption of oil products.

It is expected, that in the foreseeable future the demand for oil products will increase also by 1, 5 % a year and will reach 5, 7 bln. t. in 2030 against 3,5 bln.t. in 2000. Thus, the share of light and average distillates will grow in demand for oil products (gasoline, diesel fuel, aviakerosene). As a result by 2030 the consumption of motor kinds of oil products will make 82 % of the whole volume of consumed oil products against 78 % in 2000. The greatest growth of consumption of oil products, as well as oil, is expected in developing countries, first of all in China, India and the countries of Africa. More than 85 % of new capacities of oil refineries will be constructed in these countries and others, which are not members of ОEСD.

In the group of states with transitional economy, according to the forecasts of the IEА, the demand for oil products will increase by 2 - 2, 2 % a year on average.

The rates of expansion of capacities on primary oil refining, according to available forecasts, will be a little lower in comparison with the rates of growth of demand for oil products. So, according to IEA forecast, the growth of world capacities on primary oil refining in 2001-2020 will make only 1, 3 % per year on average in comparison with 3 % during 1991-2000. The decrease in the rates of growth of world capacities on processing is explained, first of all, by the development of modernization process of already available equipment. The construction of new capacities is expected mainly in economically developed states.

The growth of the share of import in covering the whole global demand for oil products can also be expected. Hence, the advancing growth of total world import demand will be kept approximately by 1, 8 - 2, 0 % a year on the average, or by 265-300 mln.t. up to 1015-1050 mln.t. in 2020.

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