Научный журнал

European Journal of Natural History

ISSN 2073-4972

ИФ РИНЦ = 0,301

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Abramov V.K.

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The correlation method of static series reflecting social and economical processes has a wide enough spread occurrence. The attributive series correlation is used to the lesser extent, though in historical studies the quantitative formalization of politico-social events can be most often expressed in them particularly. At the Mordovian State University the experience showing that the application of methods, in particular, of rank correlation can work well in the politico-social sphere, has been collected. As an illustration it is possible to quote the investigation of agrarian waves of peasant unrest in Mordovia in 1917 and 1905-1907. It is usually thought that both disorders were determined by the peasants´ lack of land and the authorities´ weakness. In the documents of the Provisional Government bodies the peasant-participants of the agrarian movement are differentiated on historical and national features. The peasants of Mordovia were referred mainly to 11 national-historical groups, however, there are villages belonging to 7 groups only there in the records on the topic. Finally, in October-November, 1917, at the peak of the movement, there are only "mass massacres" often spoken about in them. All this gives evidence of the quantitative data inaccuracy and that the rank correlation is the most appropriate method to use here. The maximum energy in the movement was demonstrated by the Russian former manor peasantry (Rus. Man.) - I rank, then - Russian former demesne one (Rus. Dem.) - II rank, Mordovian former manor peasantry (Mrd. Man.) - III rank, etc. Let us place them in series in a table with the correspondent ranks of land amount per host. In this case we shall obtain the Spearman´s rank correlation coefficient  I.e. between the participation of Mordovian peasants in the agrarian movement of 1917 and their provision with land there was a rather close feedback.

The coefficient of Kendall , though more carefully, but also shows the high closeness of this relation. If we carry out an analogous investigation for 1905-1907, we shall obtain accordingly  I.e. the unrest waves of 1905-1907 were conditioned by the lack of land to a lesser extent than those of 1917, and - to a greater extent turned up to be the reflection of All-Russia political crisis. And in 1917 the specified closeness of the relation was stimulated by the Land Decree, which had provoked the communities to capture outside lands.

The work was submitted to international scientific conference «Innovation technologies», USA (New York), December, 19-27, 2007, came to the editorial office 14.01.2008.

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