Scientific journal
European Journal of Natural History
ISSN 2073-4972

ECONOMIC MODELLING IN SYSTEM OF FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Gavrilkova N.Y. 1
1 Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University, Achinsk branch

Economic-mathematical modeling as a reliable method of studying economic processes and systems has proved itself some time ago and is traditionally used to solve a range of economic problems that are linked to an optimal distribution and re-distribution of resources, calculations of rational parameters, and evaluation of alternative variants of developing enterprises, scientifically-grounded territorial location of production, explanation optimal proportions of productive systems, etc.

Productive function occupies an important place in an economy as a model that directly impacts the process of production. This method implies limitation of analysis by external, quantitative correlations without questioning its essence and qualitative content. Modeling represents a construction of mathematical model. It requires a strong idea on a purpose of function of a studied economic system and possession of information on limitations that define a range of available values of the managed variables. Analysis of the model should lead to definition of the best managing impact upon an object of management that provides for meeting all set limitations. Complexity of real systems can significantly complex visualization of objectives and limitations in an analytic view. Regardless of an extremely large number of variables and limitations that, fronm the first sight, should be considered while analyzing real situations, only a small part of them proves to be significant in describing the studied systems. Therefore, while modeling systems, we should identify dominant variables, parameters, and limitations.

The essence of strategic planning of agriculture is in explaining objectives of its development and defining a system of measures that are necessary for its realization in future. At state and regional level the following objectives are defined: provision of food safety, increase in provision of food to population, achieving parity of prices and buying ability and its support, protection of the environment, etc. At the level of an enterprise the strategic objective is receiving maximum income with minimum costs due to realization of products, defining a direction of specialization, priorities in development of production branches, increase in sale volumes, rational distribution of resources.

One of the problems that is difficult to solve without specific methodical approaches, is developing a strategy of a stable development of an enterprise. Such strategy should provide for a possibility of an attended, internally-balanced function of basic productive resources of the enterprise and its economic-physical parameters.

Multiple interrelated and mutually-defined indexes that should be considered while defining rational structure of production, have defined the necessity of developing optimization models. Thus, they can be used in forming strategy of development and making final managing decisions.

Nowadays there are many approved economic-mathematical models that allow one to solve diverse problems that are linked to the development of agrarian enterprises. Leaders of these organizations should define recommended direction in order to increase economic efficiency of the production. However, receiving a certain effect is possible only under optimal combination of of basic production resources.

Thus, alteration and correction of production elements according to calculations of an optimization model can have a positive effect over an economic efficiency of production the agrarian sector. It will provide for a creating of conditions for improvements in specialization and concentration of production over regions and categories of enterprises, increase in efficiency of production sectors, and economical distribution of the possessed resources.

Modeling allows one to significantly increase the quality of strategic, tactic, operative planning, and also consider their impact over parameters of the development of the predicted changes in terms of economic activity.

The work was submitted to International Scientific Conference «The problems of economic security, modeling and forecasting economic processes», Israel (Tel Aviv), April, 16-23, 2013, сame to the editorial office on 20.03.2013.