The main result of the global financial crisis for most developed countries and developing markets has become a forced process of modernization of the productive forces, and as a consequence – the phase transition to the new technological order. This process, along with the volatility of world markets and the gradual recovery of the world’s leading economies, is a significant pressure to the losing competitive advantages Russian economy.
Unfortunately, domestic economic policy has not pursued enhance of competitiveness and, given the increasing openness (eg. WTO and Customs Union) and the free movement of capital, this problem will occur particularly acute. Potential GDP at constant domination of the commodity sector and unfavorable investment climate, almost reached, and «conservative» economic policies have led to the loss of the «natural» competitive advantage of Russia – the ability to use cheap and available resources. Not the last role has played here ambiguous activities of the institute of «state corporations» (singular «parastatal» forms of business on factor markets).
So-called infrastructure «mega projects» does not bring real results. The reasons for their weak influence on the development of the economy, is the abandonment of the principles of macroeconomic multiplier – namely, the use of materials and equipment of domestic production, as well as the use predominantly of resident workforce. The presence of «corruption tax» strengthens immunity monetary stimulus to the economy and reduces the multiplier.
An overindulgence of devaluation tool, except of short-term budget replenishment, do not have a stimulating effect on the economy that is largely depended on consumer and industrial importing goods.
Small and medium business, the most important base of socio-economic development and innovation, is continuing shrinking. The business environment is influenced by negative factors such as the rise of resources cost and limiting access to them, the lack of cheap long money, the poor competitive environment, the weak protection of property and the imperfection of the judicial system, the deficiency of incentives for innovation and of qualified personnel.
Large business having principally an offshore character is protected from the imperfections of the business environment. 9 and 10 deals of large businesses take place outside Russia. Over the last years there has been significant annual capital outflows, and accumulated funds (pension fund, the National Welfare Fund, etc.) are not used in the economy. Opportunity costs of this process due to the multiplier effect are greater than the value of funds themselves.
Naturally, the expected result is a slowdown of economy growth and the practical cessation of growth of industrial production.
Modernization of the economy structure and institutions is essential for sustainable growth and competitiveness in the global market. According to IEF RAS calculations economic growth of at least 8 % needed for modernization (compared to the projected rate of about 1 %).
Thus, a structural transformation and modernization of institutions is needed to overcome the limitations of economic development, to reach a sustainable GDP growth on intensive basis and to create a favorable business environment. The most difficult problem here is the problem of synchronized affecting the formal and informal institutional matrix elements, according to their characteristics and relationships.
Conservative economic policies must be transformed into a policy of re-industrialization and innovative development. Full integration in the global economy as a strong independent player is impossible without a strong economy.
The work is submitted to the International Scientific Conference «Problems of safety, modeling and forecasting of economic processes», Israel (Tel Aviv), April 25 – Мay 2, 2014, came to the editorial office оn 04.04.2014.
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